Atrocity Forecasting Project

The project has the overall purpose of enhancing capacity for forecasting mass atrocities and genocide globally and in the Asia-Pacific region. The specific aims are to:

  • develop sophisticated, appropriate, and cutting-edge quantitative forecasting models,
  • improve understanding of the causes of political instability and conflict which greatly increase the probability of mass atrocities or genocide,
  • improve understanding of the crucial causal processes which lead from instability to mass atrocities or genocide, and
  • produce forecasts and reports which are useful as early warning tools for protection of vulnerable populations.

For more information visit the project page.