ANU experts discuss the state of the election

On Saturday 2 July Australians voted in the 2016 election, with vote counting ongoing and the outcome unclear.

Now some of Australia's leading politics and policy experts at ANU have explained what this current election situation means for Australia.

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POLITICS

Dr Jill Sheppard
Australian Centre for Applied Social Research Methods
ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences

"We know from 2010 that Australians lose confidence in the direction of the country when elections don't produce a clear result. Whichever party forms government over the coming days or weeks will have to contend with Australians' dissatisfaction, as well as the lack of any obvious mandate.

"Although we look destined for more instability, Australians should remember that we have an extraordinarily stable political system by international standards. Minority government is common throughout Europe, and even in New Zealand."

Emeritus Professor John Warhurst
School of Politics & International Relations
Research School of Social Sciences
ANU College of Arts & Social Sciences

"State politics shaped this federal election. Malcolm Turnbull should send Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews, in particular, a thank you card.

"Whatever the eventual outcome, federal Labor's poor performance in his state, probably caused by the lingering dispute between the volunteer firefighters and the state government and other state factors, might just have made the difference between defeat and victory for the federal Coalition.

"Rather than Labor winning one or two seats in Victoria it may have lost Chisholm, its sole loss anywhere. In football parlance such losses are worth eight points."

Professor Ian McAllister
Distinguished Professor of Political Science
Director, Australian Electoral Study project (1987-2019)
School of Politics and International Relations

"I'm a bit bemused by the result, and I think it's possible that we will head back to the polls. The previous minoroty government arrangement between the Greens and Labor was so difficult and unpopular that I don't see either major party wanting to head down that path."

CONSTITUTIONAL LAW

Dr Ryan Goss
ANU College of Law
E: ryan.goss@anu.edu.au

"The possibility of another hung parliament raises a number of constitutional and political questions for our system of government.

"In many important areas of Australia's constitutional system, much is determined by unwritten rules - or what we call 'constitutional conventions'. If we find ourselves with a hung parliament, these constitutional conventions will interact with politics to shape what happens next."

ECONOMICS AND TAX

Professor Quentin Grafton
Environmental and resource economics
Crawford School of Public Policy

Expertise: Environment and resource economics, natural resource management, water pricing and economic policy related to water, Murray-Darling Basin, property economics, mineral economics, energy economics

"The election indicates the dissatisfaction with the Coalition Government policies and a willingness to turn to alternatives. The ability to undertake serious economic reform has been seriously compromised until the next election."

DEFENCE AND SECURITY

Dr John Blaxland
Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs
ANU College of Asia & the Pacific

"Most pundits will focus on economic and domestic political considerations relating to the prospect of a hung parliament. But there are equally if not more significant geo-strategic concerns arising that require clear-headed and far sighted leadership.

"In particular, the anticipated Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling over the Philippines dispute with China over Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which is due on 12 July. When added to the turbulence generated by Brexit, there are legitimate concerns over the way China, the Philippines and the United States likely will respond, let alone the other interested parties with a stake in the disputed South China Sea.

"With only a few months left of Obama's term in office and China's Xi Jinping having focused on pressing China's claims in the South China Sea, there are genuine concerns a crisis could eventuate, triggering a further deterioration in regional relations.

"A clear election outcome is important if Australia is to navigate these rough waters unscathed."

Dr Adam Henschke
ANU National Security College

"The Brexit decision confirmed that there is a general public sentiment against the political establishment. As such, it should come as no surprise that there was a swing towards minor, micro parties and independents.

"In practical terms this means that either major party will have to cooperate with others in both houses. A deeper point though is that part of the dissatisfaction with the major parties comes from their own lack of cooperation. The public are tired of bickering and self-interested political point scoring.

"If nothing else, all political groups need to see this as a time to start working together."