Trends of the elderly with disabilities and their needs for rehabilitation services, 2006-2050: implications for the future of China

Disability may hinder people's full and effective participation in society on an equal basis with others, and generally make the greatest demand on the health system and social welfare system which impacts most on older individuals. The burden of disability increases for caregivers, as well as health and social care systems. Accordingly, its impact is set to accelerate with rapid population ageing in the coming years. Thus, understanding the future trends of disability in older adults is crucial for policy concerns and planning on social welfare, health care services, retirement and pensions. With slowed economic growth in recent years and regional imbalance in China, there has been widespread concern about the effects of future economic growth, health care services provision and individual income on providing support for the elderly with disabilities. One of the main concerns created by an increasing disabled elderly population is the impact this might have on the demand for and provision of diversified rehabilitation services. The focus of this study will be on the future trends of disability and estimation of the needs for rehabilitation services in China. Our findings indicate that the size and age composition of the elderly population is sensitive to the prevalence of disabilities. The elderly’s educational attainment and income are negatively associated with the probability of being disabled, while the 'negative' effect of income is much larger. The ratio of the working-aged to the disabled elderly will decrease. Those provinces with the lowest GDP per capita will be able to afford much more disabled elderly persons relative to one GDP per capita. The gaps between 'met' and 'potential' needs for rehabilitation services will narrow. The growing number of older adults with disabilities and the shrinking number of potential caregivers may cause a serious imbalance between the need for rehabilitation services and service providers in China.