Projecting Midwifery Workforce Demand in the ACT Using a Microsimulation Model

The National Centre for Health Workforce Studies (NCHWS) is a new group within the National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, the College of Law, Governance and Policy. We Marco and Tomoko will first briefly describe the mission of the NCHWS, who we are, and our approach to our work. We will then present a recent modelling study designed to forecast the demand for public sector midwives in the ACT through to 2032. 

The purpose of our presentation to the School of Demography is for us to get to know each other better as our areas of work overlap substantially. We hope to know you better and for you to get to know us. 

The workforce model we will present incorporates local demographic trends, changing maternity care preferences, and policy commitments. Using a microsimulation approach, it simulates pregnant populations, estimates their care pathways, and translates service needs into full-time equivalent (FTE) midwifery demand. Scenario analysis assesses the workforce implications of relevant policy changes. The findings highlight a growing demand for public midwives in the ACT and aim to inform evidence-based workforce planning.
 

Assoicate Professor Tomoko Sugiura set up the NCHWS and its data team HDAT in 2022 after a successful career in the Australian Public Service and management consulting. She has worked with Australian and International data for over 25 years and is passionate about evidence-based health policy and collaboration across academic and public service sector. She has PhD from UNSW in psychology. 

Qingyue (Marco) Li is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the NCHWS, ANU, and holds a PhD in Actuarial Studies. His research focuses on forecasting private health insurance (PHI) participation and evaluating the impact of government policies using dynamic microsimulation models. He developed advanced modelling techniques in his PhD to assess PHI sustainability. Marco currently leads the ACT Health Workforce Demand Project and contributes to the North West Tasmania Region Health Workforce Planning Project. He specialises in analysing large-scale datasets and translating quantitative findings into policy-relevant insights for health system planning and reform.

Join Zoom Meeting
https://anu.zoom.us/j/81455885913?pwd=HnuaIDGJFbAo3gXACbarUz8zb2OrQo.1 

Meeting ID: 814 5588 5913
Password: 174096