Recidivism tools outdated: ANU criminologist

Criminologists from The Australian National University (ANU) are calling for an overhaul of the risk assessment tools used to determine if criminals will reoffend.

A working paper produced by four authors including ANU Criminology Professor Roderic Broadhurst and Statistics Professor Ross Maller has found limitations in the way authorities determine an offender's risk of reoffending.

Professor Broadhurst said Australia was using outdated tools mostly drawn from North American databases often based on relatively small offender populations released in the 1990's and analysed using less accurate statistical techniques. 

"You might be co-operative and seen as a model prisoner. But the fact that you're compliant in jail has got little bearing on whether you'll reoffend or not," the School of Sociology-based criminologist said.

Latest overall Australia-wide data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows around 40 per cent of prisoners will find themselves back in gaol within 10 years of their release.

Professor Broadhurst said the age of a person when first arrested, and the number of times arrested, were the most useful factors to estimate recidivism. Other factors that vary the risk of rearrest are the sex and Aboriginality of the offender and the type of offences.

Professor Broadhurst said the justice system often confounded the assessment of the needs of the offender for treatment with an assessment about the level of risk of committing another offence.

Current estimates of recidivism are also based on relatively short follow-up times of between two to three years, which are usually insufficient to accurately predict recidivism, especially for serious offences.

The working paper also found only three of the 1,088 homicide offenders (those charged with murder, manslaughter or driving causing death) in Western Australia over the past 22 years were subsequently arrested and charged with a second homicide.

However, the risks of rearrest varied depending on factors such as youth, prior record and the type of homicide. Among male murderers 66 per cent were rearrested for another offence while only 43 per cent of manslaughter or driving causing death offenders were ever rearrested.

The research also found younger male offenders with a record of arrest before a homicide had the highest risks of re-offending.

Professor Broadhurst said several factors could be behind the levels of reoffending for homicide offenders, including the impact and stigma of imprisonment on their ability to readjust to life in the community.

He said there was a pressing need to improve the accuracy and simplicity of risk assessment tools used by the justice system.

The paper was co-written by Ross Maller from the ANU School of Finance, Actuarial Studies and Statistics, Max Maller from the Western Australian Department of Health Law, and ANU visiting scholar Brigitte Bonhours.

A copy of the paper is available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2712091 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2712091.